Redistricting & House Elections 2012-20

Check out my postmortem of 2012-2020 redistricting & congressional elections (post).

Two unexpected discoveries:

1. The partisan advantage due to REDMAP gerrymandering could have been much worse in 2012–2016, and

2. The partisan advantage due to REDMAP gerrymandering essentially disappeared in 2018 and 2020

I explain the main factors behind both surprises from a structural perspective, i.e., just the maps and how they performed independent of individual candidates & campaigns